ARWU university ranking expands, delivers further volatility
The 2019 edition of the Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU), prepared by ShanghaiRanking Consultancy, produced yet another set of volatile results driven by the massive increase in the numbe
The 2019 edition of the Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU), prepared by ShanghaiRanking Consultancy, produced yet another set of volatile results driven by the massive increase in the number of highly cited researchers, which accounts for 20% of the overall score.
The Highly Cited Researchers list is produced by Clarivate and since 2015 it has been updated annually. This list is used by ARWU to produce the ranking. For the first time, the list used for the 2019 ranking contains 2,020 researchers who are identified as having exceptional performance across several fields.
Excluding cross-field highly cited researchers (HCRs), there are 4,058 HCRs from 63 countries in 21 fields of the sciences and social sciences; compared to 3,538 listed from 57 countries in 2017.
Of the institutions ranked in the top 500, there were 97 institutions that moved either upwards or downwards by more than 51 places. The key improvement driver is the volume of HCRs.
The higher the overall rank of an institution the less the influence of the number of its HCRs observed in the 2019 edition. This means that the most prestigious institutions can attract and retain top researchers at the expense of the less endowed or prestigious institutions.
No more stability
Compared to other ranking schemas, ARWU has a relatively transparent methodology and has maintained easy access to all aggregated annual rankings since it started in 2003. It must be commended for these efforts.
However, ARWU is no longer characterised by the stability for which it was recognised in the early years. The probability of an institution remaining ranked in the same band (grouped in 20s, for example 1-20, 21-40, 41-60 et al) lessens considerably with every quintile down the list.
Further, just 35% of institutions ranked in the top 500 in ARWU remained either unchanged or within 10 positions (up or down) of their 2018 ranking. In addition, 19% of institutions moved up or down by more than 51 positions compared to the previous year.
By contrast, the 2020 edition of QS World University Rankings shows greater stability: 52% of institutions ranked in the top 500 in QS remained unchanged or within 10 positions (up or down) of their previous ranking in the 2019 edition. Only 5% moved up or down by more than 51 positions compared to the previous year.
Top 1,000 institutions
Over the past three years, ARWU has managed the expansion of the ranking from the world’s top 500 universities to 1,000 effectively, whilst maintaining focus and integrity in how it has reported its yearly results. In the 2017 edition, ARWU produced an additional list of 300 universities that it deemed were candidates that could break into the top 500; then in 2018, it expanded that list by 500 candidates.
This year ARWU has released results for the top 1,000 universities spread across 65 countries. Universities from Nigeria, Oman, United Arab Emirates and Vietnam are included for the first time. Overall, there are more than 50 new entrants in this year’s ARWU rankings.
In recent years ranking schemas have expanded considerably the number of universities they rank. The approach used by ARWU in distinguishing the world’s top 500 and up-and-coming 500 institutions is worthwhile as a model for future expansion. Highlighting institutions which may make future rankings is a sensible approach which other schemas can adopt.
It is also imperative that ranking schemas ensure that new entrants’ performance is clearly evaluated and consistent with like-to-like peers. The same principle should underpin the ranking of institutions which have been subject to mergers or acquisitions.
Top 100 institutions
Harvard University has topped the ARWU since its inception 17 years ago. In the 2019 ranking, Stanford University and the University of Cambridge remain in second and third places – indeed, for 16 years the same universities have clinched the top 10. The other top 10 universities in their 2019 ranking order are: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of California Berkeley, Princeton University, University of Oxford, Columbia University, California Institute of Technology and the University of Chicago.
There are four institutions that have moved up to the top 100, two of which have entered it for the first time. Their inclusion is attributed to the increase in the number of their HCRs.
In the case of the University of New South Wales, the number of HCRs has increased from six to 20, including six cross-field HCRs. Shanghai Jiao Tong University has increased its number of HCRs from three to 11 (including five cross-field HCRs).
In the first edition of ARWU, Shanghai Jiao Tong University was ranked in the 401-450 band and has stayed in the 101-150 since 2014. It has been a remarkable journey of transformation for the institution which was founded in 1896 and gave birth to the global rankings.
The other two institutions (Brown University from the United States and the University of Bonn from Germany) returned to the top 100 after an absence of two and three years, respectively.
Geopolitical shifts
With every new edition of the global rankings, the weakening position of universities from the United States and European countries becomes further entrenched.
In 2003, there were 161 universities from the US among the top 500 (of which 93 ranked in the top 200) and there are now 137 in the top 500 (of which 66 are in the top 200). In the case of Europe’s four biggest economies (Germany, United Kingdom, France and Italy), the number of universities in the top 500 decreased from 128 in 2003 to 90 in 2019.
In 2003, there were 19 Chinese universities in the top 500, but none in the top 100 or top 200. Fast forward to 2019 and there are 66 in the top 500, of which four are in the top 100 and 10 in the top 200. There are a further 88 which are ranked in the 501-1,000 range compared to 90 for the four biggest European economies and 69 for the US. It is going to be interesting to monitor changes in the overall standing of universities over the next five years.
African and Latin American countries are yet to have an impact in the rankings. While there is a greater visibility of institutions from these regions, particularly those from South Africa, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, these are the stand-outs rather than the norm. This adds to questions about the uneven development that prevails in higher education, research and scientific endeavours.
How to make it to the top
ARWU assesses more than 1,800 institutions and the results for the top 1,000 are published.
Every institution ranked by ARWU (either in the top 500 or 501-1,000) has scores for the number of papers indexed in the Science Citation Index Expanded and the Social Sciences Citation Index.
Of the institutions ranked in the top 500, only two do not have scores in the Nature and Science metric. The probability of an institution featuring in the ranking without having a co-authorship article in these journals are limited, because only 66 of the institutions ranked in the 601-1,000 range lack a score for this metric.
The ranking also shows that the probability of an institution being included in the top 500 without an HCR are rapidly diminishing. In 2016, 99 institutions did not have a score in the HCR metric compared to 50 in this year’s edition. Institutions which do not have an HCR can be mostly found in the 801-1,000 range.
Finally, there has not been much change in the number of institutions which host a Nobel Laureate or Field Medallist: 350 of the top 500 institutions do not have any, compared to 358 institutions in 2016. As for having alumni who are Nobel Laureates or Field Medallists, 292 institutions do not have any compared to 291 in 2016.
Angel Calderon is principal advisor, planning and research, at RMIT University in Australia. He is a rankings expert and a Latin American specialist, and serves on the board of QS World University Rankings.